Writeup

The Moving Monsoon

How climate change shifts the rainfall rhythms of billions.

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Monsoon region

What is a Monsoon?

Monsoons are seasonal wind and rainfall patterns that bring life-sustaining rains to large parts of the world.

Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM)

Each summer, moist winds rush inland from the Indian Ocean, bringing intense rains to South Asia between about 5°N and 35°N, from 60°E to 100°E.

West African Monsoon (WAM)

Over West Africa, the monsoon delivers rainfall to the Sahel, from roughly 40°S to 15°N and 25°W to 50°E, sustaining crops and river systems.

South American Monsoon (SAMS)

In South America, the monsoon system spans the Amazon and central Brazil, between about 15°N and 15°S, and 90°W to 35°W, shaping one of the world’s largest rainforest regions.

Historic Monsoon Rainfall Cycle

In all three systems, the peak rainfall is concentrated in a relatively fixed window of the year, showing that while climate change affects intensity and totals, the seasonal timing of these monsoons remains fairly consistent. The graph shows the average precipitation in millimeters (mm) of days with rainfall.

Year:
ISM
SAM
WAM

Indian Summer Monsoon

ISM rainfall frame

ISM rainfall frame

West African Monsoon

WAM rainfall frame

WAM rainfall frame

South American Monsoon

SAMS rainfall frame

SAMS rainfall frame

Watching each season unfold reveals how monsoon rains move year to year, but it masks the deeper pattern.

When we compare the late 20th century to the end of this century, we can see where rainfall is truly redistributing.

Future–Past Seasonal Shifts

Indian Summer Monsoon

Seasonal difference map for the Indian Summer Monsoon: 2100s minus 1990s

West African Monsoon

Seasonal difference map for the West African Monsoon: 2100s minus 1990s

South American Monsoon

Seasonal difference map for the South American Monsoon: 2100s minus 1990s

Well, Why Does this Even Matter?

As the planet warms, the water cycle speeds up. Wet regions can get even wetter while dry regions dry out, reshaping where and when rain falls. For people living under monsoon skies, that doesn’t just change the weather.

It changes harvests, flooding, and who has reliable access to drinking water.

1. Agriculture: Increasingly Unpredictable and Vulnerable

Monsoon timing and intensity decide whether fields thrive or fail.

In Wet Regions

  • Flooded fields: Excess water drowns crops and damages roots.
  • Soil erosion: Heavy rainfall strips away fertile topsoil.
  • Plant diseases: Warm, humid conditions promote fungal outbreaks.
  • Yield instability: Storm damage makes harvests harder to predict.

In Dry Regions

  • Drought stress: Too little rain shrinks yields.
  • Reduced soil moisture: Dry, compacted soil becomes less productive.
  • Shifting crop zones: Some crops can no longer grow where they used to.
  • More irrigation: Farmers lean on groundwater and rivers that may also be shrinking.

2. Flooding: More Extreme Where Rain Increases

Stronger downpours turn familiar rivers and streets into hazards.

In Wet Areas

  • Intense rainstorms: Huge volumes fall in just hours.
  • River overflow: River basins flood more often and more severely.
  • Urban flooding: Stormwater systems get overwhelmed.
  • Coastal “compound” floods: Heavy rain stacks on top of higher seas.

In Drier Landscapes

  • Flash floods: Hard, dry soils absorb water poorly, so rare storms create sudden floods.
  • Overall trend: Chronic river flooding decreases while drought becomes the main threat.

3. Water Security: Too Much in Some Places, Too Little in Others

The same shifting monsoon can cause floods upstream and empty taps downstream.

In Wet Regions

  • Inconsistent supply: Long dry spells punctuated by huge storms.
  • Contamination risks: Floods mix sewage and pollutants into drinking water.
  • Infrastructure stress: Reservoirs and dams face overflow and safety concerns.

In Dry Regions

  • Chronic shortages: Less rain and more evaporation dry rivers, lakes, and aquifers.
  • Groundwater depletion: People pump more than nature can refill.
  • Rising competition: Cities, farms, and ecosystems all fight for the same water.
  • Migration pressure: Water stress can push communities to move.
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💧 Completed!

Flood
Storm
Drought
Other
Select a country to view counts.
Disaster Mortality Visualization

ONE CLIMATE, MANY REALITIES

So, where should we start? Select a monsoon to follow how rainfall changes interact with different land covers, and what kinds of local solutions might help.

Climate action succeeds only when solutions are designed for the realities of each region, not applied as universal fixes.

Eekhout, J., Hunink, J., Terink, W., & de Vente, J. (2018). Why increased extreme precipitation under climate change negatively affects water security. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22(11), 5935–5946. doi.org

Gao, D., Chen, A., Marthews, T., & Memon, F. (2024). Evaluating future hydrological changes in China under climate change [Preprint]. doi.org

National Aeronautics and Space Administration. (n.d.). How does climate change affect precipitation? NASA Global Precipitation Measurement Mission. gpm.nasa.gov

Qing, Y., Wang, S., Yang, Z.-L., & Gentine, P. (2023). Soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks have triggered the shifts from drought to pluvial conditions since 1980. Communications Earth & Environment, 4(1), 1–11. doi.org

Turner, S., Chevuturi, A., Chan, W., Barker, L. J., Tanguy, M., Parry, S., & Allen, S. (2025). Have river flow droughts become more severe? A review of the evidence from the UK. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 29(19), 4371–4394. doi.org

Wang, X.-Y., Bao, X.-Y., Huang, Y., Li, Z.-W., Yong, J.-H., Wu, Y.-P., Feng, G.-L., & Sun, G.-Q. (2023). Physical explanation for paradoxical climate change in semi-arid inland Eurasia. Atmosphere, 14(2), 376. doi.org

Xiong, J., Guo, S., Abhishek, A., Chen, J., & Yin, J. (2022). Global evaluation of the “dry gets drier, and wet gets wetter” paradigm. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26(24), 6457–6476. doi.org

World Bank Group. (n.d.). India - Historical natural disasters. Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

World Bank Group. (n.d.). Pakistan - Historical natural disasters. Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

World Bank Group. (n.d.). Bangladesh - Historical natural disasters. Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

World Bank Group. (n.d.). Brazil - Historical natural disasters. Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

World Bank Group. (n.d.). Argentina - Historical natural disasters. Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

World Bank Group. (n.d.). Colombia - Historical natural disasters. Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

World Bank Group. (n.d.). Nigeria - Historical natural disasters. Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

World Bank Group. (n.d.). Ghana - Historical natural disasters. Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

World Bank Group. (n.d.). Cote d'Ivoire - Historical natural disasters. Climate Change Knowledge Portal.

Writeup

1. What have you done so far? So far, we have created the landing page of our project website, which has rain animation that reflects our monsoon topic. We also have created the next part, where we introduce what is a monsoon and the three specific monsoons we will focus on. We have implemented a rotating globe, in which when you click on each monsoon explanation section, the globe will rotate to the center of the monsoon. We have also created a radial plot of historic precipitation every month for years 1995~2014 to show how monsoons normally behave. Additionally, we created an interactive infographic showing deaths related to effects of changing monsoons across the 3 largest countries in each region. Finally, we added some of the research we did on why focusing on monsoon patterns matter.

2. What will be the most challenging of your project to design and why? We believe the most challenging part of our project is to create three of everything because we are focusing on three major monsoons. Specifically, at the very end of the website we plan to have a world map with all the data, similar to our project 3. However, unlike project 3 where it did not zoom in, we are going to create a zoom in feature for all three of the monsoons and compare two SSPs. This requires a lot of data and involves a lot of interactive elements, which we believe will be the most challenging.